ارزیابی عملکرد نسل پنجم مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو در پیش‌بینی بارش های سامانه مونسون اقیانوس هند بر فراز جنوب سیستان و بلوچستان، با استفاده از تغییرات دیرینه هیدرولوژیکی منطقه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

پژوهشکده علوم زمین، سازمان زمین شناسی و اکتشافات معدنی کشور، تهران، ایران

چکیده
در این مطالعه تغییرات هیدرولوژیکی آینده در جنوب استان سیستان و بلوچستان بر اساس مجموعه داده‌های آب و هوای سی ساله (1989-2019) ایستگاه سینوپتیک ایرانشهر پیش‌بینی گردید. سپس نتایج با تغییرات دیرینه اقلیمی در منطقه، برای درک دقیق تغییرات شدت و مکان سامانه مونسون اقیانوس هند بر فراز جنوب شرق ایران مقایسه گردیدند در این راستا با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG و داده‏های گردش عمومی جو مستخرج از پنج مدل (EC-EARTH، GFDL-CM3، HadGEM2-ES، MIROC5، MPI-ESM-MR)، دمای کمینه، دمای بیشینه و میزان بارش برای آینده (2061-2080) تحت سناریوهای انتشار RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 پیش‌بینی‌ شد. نتایج نشان می دهد که میانگین 20 ساله دما در محدوده 2/3 تا 6/4 درجه سانتی گراد تحت RCP 8.5 نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش می یابد. نتایج مدل سازی، تغییرات ناچیزی در بارش مونسونی آینده تحت هر دو سناریو در مقایسه با دوره پایه را پیش‌بینی می‌کند. نتایج مطالعات دیرینه اقلیمی نشان می دهد این تغییرات ناچیز با تغییرات واقعی دیرینه‌اقلیمی که در دوره‌های گرم/مرطوب گذشته در منطقه رخ داده است، سازگار نیست. با توجه به رابطه مستقیم بین افزایش بودجه تشعشع زمین و افزایش میزان مهاجرت به سمت شمال مرز منطقۀ همگرایی بین حاره‌ای و به تبع آن تقویت مونسون تابستانه اقیانوس هند در جنوب شرقی ایران از اواخر پلیستوسن، افزایش شدت بارش های سامانه مونسون اقیانوس هند بر فراز منطقه در آینده قابل انتظار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Evaluation of the performance of the CMIP5 General Circulation Models in predicting the Indian Ocean Monsoon precipitation over south Sistan and Baluchestan, using the past hydrological changes in the region

نویسنده English

Alireza Vaezi
Research Institute of Earth Sciences,, Geological Survey of Iran
چکیده English

1-Introduction
Climate change refers to any significant change in the existing mean climatic conditions within a certain time period (Jana and Majumder, 2010; Giorgi, 2006). Earth's climate change through history has happened (Nakicenovic et al., 2000; Bytnerowicz et al., 2007).

2-Materials and methods
In this study, daily precipitation and daily maximum (Tmax) and daily minimum (Tmin) temperatures in the Iranshar synoptic station, southeastern Iran were predicted for the future (2061-2080) by statistical downscaling outputs of 5 GCM models (EC-EARTH, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-MR) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios.



Figure 1: Major climate systems over West Asia (Gurjazkaite et al., 2018; Sharifi et al., 2015; Vaezi et al., 2019). and location of the Iranshahr station (marked as a red box). A) . Dotted lines indicate the approximate current location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Mediterranean winter precipitation zone lying between the dashed lines, and the Siberian Anticyclone; IOSM refers to the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon, and a 30 years average of minimum and maximum monthly mean air temperature (°C) and mean monthly rainfall (mm) as recorded at Iranshahr.

3-Results and discussion
The results of statistical downscaling outputs of 5 GCM models by LARS-WG model under RCP 8.5 emission scenarios (the business-as-usual) in Iranshahr station was modeled from 2061–2080. During this period the mean temperature will increase between 3.2 to 4.6 °C compared to the base period.
At The Paris Agreement, the average increase in temperature was set at below 2 °C by the end of the 21st century, which includes the 0.9 °C increase since the industrial revolution, to avoid adverse and unpredictable weather effects (IPCC, 2021; Millar et al., 2017; Rogelj et al., 2018). However, the results of this study show that southeastern Iran is firmly set on the path by increasing the current temperature by several degrees more by 2080. Based on the two modeled scenarios, the change in temperature will have an increasing trend in the coming years and is in good agreement with the recent assessments of future temperature changes in southwest Asia (Babar et al., 2016; Hamidianpour et al., 2016; Pal et al., 2016; Evans, 2009). Therefore, if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their present rate, earth's surface temperature in this region will pass the temperature threshold of 2 °C.
One of the mechanisms contributing to the poor monsoon rainfall simulation in CMIP5 and HadGEM3 models may be the Arabian Sea cold sea surface temperature biases that persist until summer and reduce moisture fluxes over the Arabian Sea (Levine et al. 2013; Levine and Turner 2012). In modern times, IOSM induced upwelling of cold water leads to reduce sea surface temperatures in western Arabian Sea in summer that in turn cause reduced evaporation over a cooler Sea and less moisture in the low-level monsoon jet (Levine et al. 2013; Saher et al. 2007). In order to evaluate this hypothesis, paleoclimate changes discussed in the southeastern Iran is useful. The multi-proxy climate record from southeastern Iran reveals that the regional hydrology of southeastern Iran since ca. 14.7 cal kyr BP is primarily governed by IOSM strength, which is linked to the position of the ITCZ in response to the orbital-scale changes in summer insolation (Fleitmann et al., 2007; Gupta et al., 2003; Overpeck et al., 1996).

4- Conclusion
As the first comprehensive (both future and paleo) climatic change study in the arid region of southeastern Iran on the north most border of IOSM, we compare simulated future precipitation based on different scenarios of global warming with real paleoclimatic changes that happened since ca. 14.7 cal kyr BP in the region. In this respect, the maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation projection in the southeastern Iran is derived from the downscaling of the CMIP5 GCMs (EC-EARTH, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and MPI-ESM-MR) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using the LARS- WG model. Paleoenvironmental records since 14.7 cal kyr BP from southeastern Iran is used to examine whether the predicted changes in precipitation (variability in IOSM and MLW output) based on the two scenarios of global warming are valid.
we postulate that results of statistical downscaling outputs of the GCMs by LARS-WG model in Iranshar synoptic station did not have a sensitivity to simulate monsoon precipitation in this complicated region with various factors impacting climate change. Because the results dose not match the paleohydrological changes and Intensify of IOSM during past warm periods. We suggest, in the new generation of climate models, the effect of a consistent increase in seasonal mean precipitation during the summer monsoon under warming scenarios must be considered more for north most monsoonal domain area like southeastern Iran.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Climate change
precipitation
paleoclimate
temperature
Archer, D., & Rahmstorf, S. (2011). The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change. In The Climate Crisis: An Introductory Guide to Climate Change (Vol. 9780521407441). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511817144
Babar, Z. A., Zhi Xie-Fei, Ge, F., Riaz, M., Mahmood, A., Sultan, S., Shad, M. A., Aslam, C. M., & Ahmad, M. F. (2016). Assessment of Southwest Asia Surface Temperature Changes: CMIP5 20 th and 21 st Century Simulations. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, 13(25).
Black, E., Brayshaw, D. J., & Rambeau, C. M. C. (2010). Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: Insights from models and observations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 368(1931). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0199
Bytnerowicz, A., Omasa, K., & Paoletti, E. (2007). Integrated effects of air pollution and climate change on forests: A northern hemisphere perspective. Environmental Pollution, 147(3). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2006.08.028
Cao, J., & Zhao, H. K. (2020). Distinct response of Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation to transient and stablized warming scenarios. Advances in Climate Change Research, 11(3). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.007
Clift, P. D., & Plumb, R. A. (2008). The Asian Monsoon: Causes, History and Effects. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511535833
Cullen, H. M., deMenocal, P. B., Hemming, S., Hemming, G., Brown, F. H., Guilderson, T., & Sirocko, F. (2000). Climate change and the collapse of the Akkadian empire: Evidence from the deep sea. Geology, 28(4), 379–382. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(2000)28%3C379:CCATCO%3E2.0.CO
Donat, M. G., Lowry, A. L., Alexander, L. V., O’Gorman, P. A., & Maher, N. (2016). More extreme precipitation in the worldâ €TM s dry and wet regions. Nature Climate Change, 6(5). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2941
Evans, J. P. (2009). 21st century climate change in the Middle East. Climatic Change, 92(3–4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9438-5
Evans, J. P. (2010). Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle East. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 99(3–4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0151-8
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S. J., Mangini, A., Mudelsee, M., Kramers, J., Villa, I., Neff, U., Al-Subbary, A. A., Buettner, A., Hippler, D., & Matter, A. (2007). Holocene ITCZ and Indian monsoon dynamics recorded in stalagmites from Oman and Yemen (Socotra). Quaternary Science Reviews, 26(1–2), 170–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.04.012
Fleitmann, D., Burns, S. J., Mudelsee, M., Neff, U., Kramers, J., Mangini, A., & Matter, A. (2003). Holocene Forcing of the Indian Monsoon Recorded in a Stalagmite from Southern Oman. Science, 300(5626), 1737 LP – 1739. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/300/5626/1737.abstract
Gupta, A. K., Anderson, D. M., & Overpeck, J. T. (2003). Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean. Nature, 421(6921n), 354–357. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature01340
Gupta, A. K., Das, M., & Anderson, D. M. (2005). Solar influence on the Indian summer monsoon during the Holocene. Geophysical Research Letters, 32(17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022685
Gurjazkaite, K., Routh, J., Djamali, M., Vaezi, A., Poher, Y., Beni, A. N., Tavakoli, V., & Kylin, H. (2018). Vegetation history and human-environment interactions through the late Holocene in Konar Sandal, SE Iran. Quaternary Science Reviews, 194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.06.026
Hamzeh, Mohammad A, Mahmudy-Gharaie, M. H., Alizadeh-Lahijani, H., Moussavi-Harami, R., Djamali, M., & Naderi-Beni, A. (2016). Paleolimnology of Lake Hamoun (e Iran): Implication for Past Climate Changes and Possible Impacts on Human Settlements. Palaios, 31(12), 616–629.
Hamzeh, Mohammad Ali, Mahmudy Gharaie, M. H., Alizadeh Ketek Lahijani, H., Djamali, M., Moussavi Harami, R., & Naderi Beni, A. (2016). Holocene hydrological changes in SE Iran, a key region between Indian Summer Monsoon and Mediterranean winter precipitation zones, as revealed from a lacustrine sequence from Lake Hamoun. Quaternary International, 408, 25–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.11.011
IPCC-WGI. (2014). Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - Contributions of the Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report.
IPCC. (2019). The IPCC and Scenario Development. Scenario Process For AR5.
IPCC, Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., & B., Z. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In Cambridge University Press.
Konapala, G., Mishra, A. K., Wada, Y., & Mann, M. E. (2020). Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation. Nature Communications, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w
Le Treut, H., Somerville, R., Cubasch, U., Y. Ding, C., Mauritzen, A., Mokssit, T., Peterson, & Prather, M. (2010). Historical Overview of Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Soil Biology and Biochemistry, 42(8).
Li, X., & Ting, M. (2017). Understanding the Asian summer monsoon response to greenhouse warming: the relative roles of direct radiative forcing and sea surface temperature change. Climate Dynamics, 49(7–8). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3470-3
Luo, Q., & Yu, Q. (2012). Developing higher resolution climate change scenarios for agricultural risk assessment: Progress, challenges and prospects. In International Journal of Biometeorology (Vol. 56, Issue 4). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0488-4
May, W. (2002). Simulated changes of the Indian summer monsoon under enhanced greenhouse gas conditions in a global time-slice experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013808
Mehterian, S., Pourmand, A., Sharifi, A., Lahijani, H. A. K., Naderi, M., & Swart, P. K. (2017). Speleothem records of glacial/interglacial climate from Iran forewarn of future Water Availability in the interior of the Middle East. Quaternary Science Reviews, 164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.03.028
Millar, R. J., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Friedlingstein, P., Rogelj, J., Grubb, M. J., Matthews, H. D., Skeie, R. B., Forster, P. M., Frame, D. J., & Allen, M. R. (2017). Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °c. Nature Geoscience, 10(10). https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO3031
Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Grubler, A., Riahi, K., Roehrl, R. A., Rogner, H.-H., & Victor, N. (2000). Special report on emissions scenarios (SRES), a special report of Working Group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press.
Osman, Y., Al-Ansari, N., Abdellatif, M., Aljawad, S. B., & Knutsson, S. (2014). Expected Future Precipitation in Central Iraq Using LARS-WG Stochastic Weather Generator. Engineering, 06(13). https://doi.org/10.4236/eng.2014.613086
Overpeck, J., Anderson, D., Trumbore, S., & Prell, W. (1996). The southwest Indian Monsoon over the last 18 000 years. Climate Dynamics, 12(3), 213–225.
Pal, J. S., & Eltahir, E. A. B. (2016). Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability. Nature Climate Change, 6(2). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2833
Qian, B., Gameda, S., Hayhoe, H., De Jong, R., & Bootsma, A. (2004). Comparison of LARS-WG and AAFC-WG stochastic weather generators for diverse Canadian climates. Climate Research, 26(3). https://doi.org/10.3354/cr026175
Rashki, A., Middleton, N. J., & Goudie, A. S. (2021). Dust storms in Iran – Distribution, causes, frequencies and impacts. In Aeolian Research (Vol. 48). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aeolia.2020.100655
Rogelj, J., Popp, A., Calvin, K. V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S., Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Van Vuuren, D. P., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., … Tavoni, M. (2018). Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °c. Nature Climate Change, 8(4). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3
Sachs, J. P., Sachse, D., Smittenberg, R. H., Zhang, Z., Battisti, D. S., & Golubic, S. (2009). Southward movement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone AD 1400-1850. Nature Geoscience, 2(7). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo554
Safaierad, R., Mohtadi, M., Zolitschka, B., Yokoyama, Y., Vogt, C., & SchefuÃ, E. (2020). Elevated dust depositions in West Asia linked to ocean-atmosphere shifts during North Atlantic cold events. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(31). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004071117
Semenov, M. A., & Barrow, E. M. (1997). Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 35(4). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005342632279
Semenov, M. A., Barrow, E. M., & Lars-Wg, A. (2002). A stochastic weather generator for use in climate impact studies. User Man Herts UK.
Semenov, M. A., Pilkington-Bennett, S., & Calanca, P. (2013). Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set. Climate Research, 57(1). https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01164
Semenov, M. A., & Stratonovitch, P. (2010). Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Research, 41(1). https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00836
Sharifi, A., Pourmand, A., Canuel, E. A., Ferer-Tyler, E., Peterson, L. C., Aichner, B., Feakins, S. J., Daryaee, T., Djamali, M., Beni, A. N., Lahijani, H. A. K., & Swart, P. K. (2015). Abrupt climate variability since the last deglaciation based on a high-resolution, multi-proxy peat record from NW Iran: The hand that rocked the Cradle of Civilization? Quaternary Science Reviews, 123, 215–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.07.006
Stevens, L. R., Wright, H. E., & Ito, E. (2001). Proposed changes in seasonality of climate during the Lateglacial and Holocene at Lake Zeribar, Iran. The Holocene, 11(6), 747–755.
Street, R. B., Steynor, A., Bowyer, P., & Humphrey, K. (2009). Delivering and using the UK climate projections 2009. Weather, 64(9). https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.487
Turner, A. G., & Annamalai, H. (2012). Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon. In Nature Climate Change (Vol. 2, Issue 8). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1495
Vaezi, A., Ghazban, F., Tavakoli, V., Routh, J., Beni, A. N. A. N., Bianchi, T. S. T. S. T. S., Curtis, J. H. J. H., & Kylin, H. (2019). A Late Pleistocene-Holocene multi-proxy record of climate variability in the Jazmurian playa, southeastern Iran. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2018.09.026
Walker, R. T., & Fattahi, M. (2011). A framework of Holocene and Late Pleistocene environmental change in eastern Iran inferred from the dating of periods of alluvial fan abandonment, river terracing, and lake deposition. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30(9–10), 1256–1271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.03.004
Wang, P. X., Wang, B., Cheng, H., Fasullo, J., Guo, Z. T., Kiefer, T., & Liu, Z. Y. (2017). The global monsoon across time scales: Mechanisms and outstanding issues. In Earth-Science Reviews (Vol. 174). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.006
Weaver, A., Saenko, O., Clark, P., & Mitrovica, J. (2003). Meltwater pulse 1A from Antarctica as a trigger of the Bølling-Allerød warm interval. Science. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/299/5613/1709.short
Zhisheng, A., Guoxiong, W., Jianping, L., Youbin, S., Yimin, L., Weijian, Z., Yanjun, C., Anmin, D., Li, L., Jiangyu, M., Hai, C., Zhengguo, S., Liangcheng, T., Hong, Y., Hong, A., Hong, C., & Juan, F. (2015). Global monsoon dynamics and climate change. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 43. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-060313-054623.