دو فصلنامه کواترنری ایران

بررسی و واکاوی شتاب طیفی زمین‌لرزه در پهنه تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

مهسا عبداللهی 1
سید مرتضی موسوی 2
محمد مهدی خطیب 3
محمودرضا هیهات 4
زینب تسلیمی 5

1 دانشجوی دکتری زمین‌شناسی ساختمانی و تکتونیک، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه زمین‌شناسی، گروه علوم، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

3 استاد گروه زمین‌شناسی، دانشکده علوم، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

4 دانشیار گروه زمین‌شناسی، دانشکده علوم، دانشگاه بیرجند، بیرجند، ایران

5 کارشناس، سازمان زمین‌شناسی و اکتشاف معدنی کشور

10.22034/irqua.2025.2062794.1045
چکیده
ایران یکی از مناطق زلزله‌خیز جهان است و شهر تهران، به‌عنوان پایتخت آن‌، سابقه وقوع زمین‌لرزه‌های شدید تاریخی و ماقبل تاریخ را دارد. بررسی شتاب زمین‌لرزه در این پهنه، نقش مهمی در افزایش ایمنی و تاب‌آوری سکونت‌گاه‌ها دارد. در دو دهه اخیر، مطالعات دیرینه‌لرزه‌شناسی بر روی گسل‌های اطراف تهران اطلاعات ارزشمندی درباره رخدادهای لرزه‌ای باستانی و نرخ فعالیت بلندمدت گسل‌ها فراهم کرده است، اما این داده‌ها تاکنون به‌طور جامع در مدل‌سازی خطر لرزه‌ای استفاده نشده‌اند. هدف پژوهش حاضر، تحلیل خطر لرزه‌ای احتمالاتی بر اساس تازه‌ترین مدل‌های زمین‌ساختی و لرزه‌زمین‌ساختی است. با بازنگری در ساختارهای گسلی موجود و حذف نواحی غیرگسلی (از جمله پرتگاه‌های شمال ری، جنوب ری، کهریزک و اشتهارد) که پیش‌تر به‌اشتباه به‌عنوان منابع لرزه‌زا معرفی شده بودند، مدلی دقیق‌تر برای خطر لرزه‌ای ارائه شد. ارزیابی با روش درخت منطقی، داده‌های کیفی و کمی لرزه‌خیزی و مدل‌های NGA-West2  انجام گرفت و نقشه‌های شتاب طیفی با وضوح بالا برای دوره‌های بازگشت ۴۷۵، ۹۷۵ و ۲۴۷۵ سال تولید شد. نتایج نشان داد جنوب‌شرق تهران شتاب لرزه‌ای کمتر از برآوردهای پیشین دارد و بازنگری در طراحی لرزه‌ای را ضروری می‌کند. این پژوهش با تفسیر نوین از ساختارهای کواترنری جنوب تهران، مدلی جامع برای اصلاح آیین‌نامه‌ها، مقاوم‌سازی و مدیریت بحران ارائه می‌دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

کلید واژه‌ها: تحلیل خطر لرزه‌ای احتمالاتی
شتاب زمین‌لرزه
گسل‌های فعال تهران
دیرینه‌لرزه‌شناسی
مدل زمین‌ساختی

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis and Investigation of Earthquake Spectral Acceleration in the Tehran Region

نویسندگان English

Mahsa Abdollahi 1
Seyed Morteza Mousavi 2
Mohammad Mahdi Khatib 3
Mahmoudreza Heyhat 4
Zeynab Taslimi 5
1 PhD student in Structural Geology and Tectonics, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
2 Associate professor, Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
3 professor, Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
4 Associate professor, Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
5 Geological Expert, Department of Geosciences, Geological Survey of Iran
چکیده English

1-Introduction
Spectral acceleration zoning is a critical tool for evaluating structural response to seismic events and plays a key role in both seismic design and regional risk mitigation strategies.
Tehran, located on the southern flank of the Central Alborz range, lies in one of the most seismically active areas of the Middle East, shaped by the convergence of the Arabian and Eurasian plates. Major active faults such as the North Tehran and Mosha faults dominate the tectonic framework.
However, recent Quaternary tectonic and morphotectonic studies have questioned the seismogenic nature of previously identified faults like North Rey, South Rey, Kahrizak, and Eshtehard, suggesting they may instead represent relict paleoshorelines of the ancient Lake Ray (PAMELA), rather than active tectonic sources (Berberian, 2014; Berberian & Yeats, 2016a; Jarahi, 2021a; Navar Noveiri, 2021; Navar Noveiri et al., 2021; Nazari et al., 2010). This study aims to improve Tehran's seismic hazard models by removing non-tectonic features and integrating reliable paleoseismic data. It focuses on refining ground acceleration estimates and comparing them with previous models, including Standard 2800, EMME, and GSHAP.
Materials and methods
This study presents a comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for the Tehran metropolitan area, based on a revised seismotectonic model that excludes faults lacking credible geomorphological and sedimentological evidence of tectonic activity. The methodology includes four core steps: (1) definition of seismogenic sources, (2) selection of regionally calibrated Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), (3) development of a logic-tree to address epistemic uncertainties, and (4) computation of ground-motion exceedance rates. The seismotectonic framework was developed using prehistoric, historical, and instrumental earthquake data from IRSC, IIEES, and ISC Bulletin. Faults such as Eshtehard, North/South Rey, and Kahrizak were excluded based on paleoseismic evidence. The analysis focused on major active faults like North Tehran, North Karaj, Mosha, Taleqan, Firouzkuh, and Pishva.
Ground motion was modeled using NGA-West2 GMPEs, calibrated with local data and integrated into the logic-tree with appropriate weighting. PGA and spectral acceleration (SA at 1.0 s) were computed using Ez-Frisk software for return periods of 475, 975, and 2,475 years. Soil classification was based on Vs30 categories per the fourth edition of Iran’s seismic code (BHRC, 2014).
3-Results and discussion
Tehran’s strategic and demographic importance has made it a key target for seismic hazard mapping efforts. This study’s findings warrant comparison with previous national and international assessments. Although Standard 2800 remains the main reference for seismic design in Iran, its hazard zoning map has seen little change. The current study reveals that the standard overestimates ground acceleration in Tehran, with actual values ranging from 0.1 g to 0.3 g, compared to the code’s fixed 0.35 g and 0.3 g contours. The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) was launched between 1992 and 1999 with the goal of producing comprehensive global seismic hazard maps (Giardini, 1999). Updated versions were later released (Giardini et al., 2013). According to GSHAP data, peak ground acceleration (PGA) values across the Tehran metropolitan area and its surrounding plain range from 0.2 g in the southern parts to 0.5 g in the northern sectors. The Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) project was launched with the aim of providing the most up-to-date seismological insights for the Middle East region and has been regarded as one of the most reliable sources for seismic hazard analysis in the area (Zare et al., 2014). According to the findings of this study, earthquake ground acceleration values in various parts of Tehran and its surrounding plain range from 0.4 g to 0.75 g. One of the most credible and recent seismic hazard studies conducted in Iran, with the involvement of international experts such as Professor Yousef Bozorgnia is the work by Gholipour et al. (2008). The results from the first phase of that study, covering return periods of 475, 975, and 2,475 years, were compared with the findings of the present research for the corresponding study area.
The modeling results indicate that in certain southeastern areas of Tehran, the design peak ground acceleration (PGA) estimated using the optimized logic-tree structure is approximately 0.05 g lower than that suggested by national reference models. According to structural engineering assessments, such a reduction in PGA corresponds to an 8–10% decrease in seismic design loads (FEMA, 2012).
In typical retrofitting projects, this change could result in an average cost reduction of 150,000 to 200,000 IRR per square meter of floor area (ASCE, 2003). For instance, in a building with a 2,000 m² footprint, this would translate into a savings of approximately 300 to 400 million IRR. Thus, employing a refined seismic hazard model can contribute not only to safer structural design but also to the economic optimization of construction and retrofitting efforts.
4- Conclusion

The proposed model improves seismic hazard estimates for Tehran and offers a framework for revising models in similarly situated cities. By excluding inactive faults like those in southern Tehran, the model reduces uncertainties and increases the accuracy of spectral acceleration maps. These results support updates to seismic design codes, urban planning, and retrofitting priorities in high-risk areas, especially southern Tehran.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Keywords: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)
Earthquake Ground Acceleration
Active Faults of Tehran
Paleoseismology
Tectonic Modeling
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دو فصلنامه کواترنری ایران
دوره 10، 1 و 2
شهریور 1403
صفحه 189-213

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